A severe weather-induced slump in renewable energy generation has sent wholesale electricity prices soaring across northwest Europe, with German peak-time power trading above €600 per megawatt-hour.
The price shock is the result of a Dunkelflaute, a German term translating to “dark doldrums”, which characterises periods of stagnant wind and dense cloud cover that severely limit both wind and solar power output.
The current weather pattern, typical for this time of year, has gripped Germany, the UK and the Benelux countries, and is forecast by meteorological services to persist until at least the middle of the week.
On November 9, German day-ahead wholesale electricity prices on the EPEX Spot exchange settled at a yearly high of €345.64 per megawatt-hour, Junge Freiheit reported.
During the most strained 15-minute evening intervals, though, when heating and lighting demand peaked as the sun set, prices spiked to approximately €650 per megawatt-hour.
Just two weeks prior, on October 25, the German daily average was at €13.12 per megawatt-hour.
The immediate supply crunch forced European grid operators to scramble for dispatchable generation, raising the costs everywhere else as well.
In Great Britain, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) briefly issued a formal warning, known as an Electricity Margin Notice, on the morning of November 9 regarding a potential 1.4-gigawatt supply shortfall before market conditions allowed the alert to be withdrawn.
In France, day-ahead prices reached €334.12 per megawatt-hour, the highest level recorded since the energy crisis peaks of December 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Futures markets have also reacted. German and French December contracts traded near €200 per megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange (EEX), more than double their level a year earlier, Bloomberg reported.
The severity of the price spike highlights a structural vulnerability in Germany’s energy transition (Energiewende).
By legally mandating the total phase-out of its domestic nuclear power fleet, a controversial process definitively completed on April 15, 2023, Berlin removed a massive, weather-independent baseload from its grid. Its last three reactors — Isar 2, Emsland and Neckarwestheim 2 — were switched off that day.
Consequently, when renewable generation collapses during a winter Dunkelflaute, Germany is forced to rapidly ramp up its remaining coal and natural gas-fired power stations to bridge the supply gap.
Because European benchmark natural gas prices currently remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions and tight supply since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March, the cost of switching on these dispatchable gas plants immediately dictates the wholesale electricity price, passing the premium directly into the wider market.
While residential households on fixed-rate contracts are temporarily shielded from the immediate shock, the surging wholesale costs directly impact energy-intensive heavy industry and consumers on dynamic pricing tariffs.
With MetDesk meteorologist Ben Davis predicting temperatures to drop 1 to 3 degrees Celsius below the seasonal average this week, rising heating demand is expected to add further structural strain to an already tightened European grid.
⚡ UPDATE: New development in Germany’s power-grid sabotage case.
What initially raised fears of possible Russian involvement is now being investigated as an apparent climate-extremist attack.
🔍 Investigators have named a 48-year-old activist as their main suspect.
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