The Netherlands is heading towards a period of major social unrest as demographic change increasingly transforms the country’s population, Dutch sociologist Jan Latten has warned.
“We are at the beginning of major social unrest,” Latten told Dutch broadcaster WNL, arguing that the consequences of migration and changing birth rates will extend far beyond population statistics.
The Netherlands is already reaching a demographic turning point. More people are now dying than are being born, meaning that population growth increasingly depends on migration.
Latten argues that this will fundamentally change the composition of Dutch society. The population with native Dutch roots is expected to shrink substantially in the coming decades, while the number of people with a migration background continues to grow.
The total population could nevertheless continue to increase, potentially reaching around 20 million by the middle of the century.
Latten warns that such changes will inevitably have consequences for politics and social cohesion.
Different demographic groups can have different experiences, cultural backgrounds and political preferences, potentially creating increasingly sharp divisions over issues such as immigration, integration, religion and national identity.
He argues that politicians and researchers too often focus on the overall population figure while overlooking the changing composition of that population.
“Those who think that dissatisfaction over social changes has already reached its peak have insufficient regard for the direction of the underlying demographic forces,” Latten writes. “We are only at the beginning.”
The demographic shift also has implications for the relationship between population growth and political representation. As the electorate changes, so too can the political balance between parties.
Sweden’s recent election offers a glimpse of how this can play out. The result was narrowly divided between the left and right, while voting patterns differed sharply according to demographic background.
Among voters of Swedish background, there was a preference for the Right, whereas voters with a foreign background were substantially more likely to support the Left and the far-left.
🇸🇪 Statistics Sweden found the two political blocs roughly level among voters of Swedish background.
But 37 percentage points apart among voters of foreign background.
Read more ⬇️#SwedishElection #EuropeanPolitics #Migration https://t.co/4t5h4CWjJt
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