With less than a year to go before France’s 2027 presidential election, the race for the Élysée Palace has tightened before the summer in an unexpected twist.
A new Odoxa-Mascaret survey published on May 26, conducted for Public Sénat and France’s regional press, has placed left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon and former prime minister Édouard Philippe virtually neck and neck in the battle for second place, while National Rally (RN) president Jordan Bardella continues to dominate the field with 32 per cent of voting intentions. The poll surveyed 1,005 French citizens on May 20 and 21.
For Bardella, the latest figures have confirmed his continued dominance. The RN leader had suffered a dip in popularity following April’s widely discussed paparazzi photo with his new girlfriend, Princess Maria-Caroline of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, which reportedly cost him three points in the rankings.
Philippe, long regarded as the establishment favourite, has seen his support weaken in recent weeks. The ex-prime minister has lost four points over the past two months, slipping to 17 per cent.
His early campaign momentum appears to have stalled amid a judicial investigation that has clouded his presidential ambitions. France’s National Financial Prosecutor’s office (PNF) has opened an inquiry into the mayor of Le Havre’s management of the Cité Numérique project, examining suspicions of misuse of public funds, favouritism and illegal interest-taking.
Odoxa president Gaël Sliman believes the poll “sounds the alarm” for the former prime minister.
“It seems high time for Édouard Philippe to take back control and present a more positive narrative about himself,” he said.
Mélenchon, by contrast, has been on the rise. The veteran left-wing leader, who is running for the fourth time, has gained four points to reach 16 per cent.
His rise can be attributed to his formal announcement of his candidacy on TF1’s prime-time evening news on May 3, and to growing disorder across the broader Left in France.
The Socialists and centre-left rivals have struggled with internal controversies and uncertainty surrounding their strategy for 2027, allowing Mélenchon to reassert himself as the dominant figure on the French Left.
The poll also underlines Mélenchon’s aggressive online strategy. According to Odoxa, the veteran left-wing candidate has outperformed rivals online through a relentless volume of posts and high engagement levels across social media platforms.
Despite the recovery, Mélenchon — a former Trotskyist who founded La France Insoumise (LFI) in 2016 — remains one of the country’s most divisive political figures.
On the Left, the survey noted that Mélenchon recorded a six-point rise among left-wing voters, reclaiming his position as the most popular political figure within the French Left with 49 per cent support.
Given the number of candidates and Bardella’s almost-certain qualification for the second round, the bar to reach the run-off — historically around 23 per cent — could be much lower this time.
According to Sliman, “this means that today it would be impossible to guarantee that Philippe would beat Mélenchon in the first round”.
In the worst-case scenario for Philippe, he would fall below 15 per cent. In a best-case scenario for Mélenchon, the LFI leader would climb above 18 per cent — enough to qualify.
