A September survey by NMS Market Research in Slovakia puts Robert Fico’s Smer only a fraction ahead of Milan Uhrík’s right-wing nationalist Republika Party, while opposition Progressive Slovakia (PS) remains in front.
The same poll is the latest sign that a harder nationalist vote is consolidating outside the government.
If a general election were held now, NMS’s voting model for daily Sme would give PS 21.6 per cent, Smer 16.2 per cent and Republika 15.6 per cent.
Fieldwork ran from September 2 to 7 among 1,004 respondents on an online panel.
Against NMS’s early-August model, PS is up from 19.2 per cent and Republika from 13.3; Smer is down three-tenths of a point. The 2.3-point rise for Republika is outside the usual margin of error for a sample of this size.
NMS analyst Mikuláš Hanes said Republika was taking disappointed voters “primarily from Smer and SNS”.
Up to a fifth of former Smer voters in the model have moved across. Their declared turnout is high and more of them now say the choice is firm.
Hanes linked the shift to strain inside the governing coalition and to the recent regional elections.
Coalition partner SNS is on 1.9 per cent, well below the 5 per cent threshold.
Hlas, President Peter Pellegrini’s party, is on 6.4 per cent.
Igor Matovič’s Hnutie Slovensko (9 per cent), SaS (6.8) and the Christian Democrats (5.8) all finish above the 5 per cent treshold.
Democrats sit just short at 4.8 per cent. The next parliamentary election is due in autumn 2027.
NMS has for months put Republika several points higher than Focus, AKO and Ipsos.
Those houses recently had the party closer to 11 per cent, with Smer and PS still in the high teens.
PolitPro’s aggregate on September 10 still averaged PS 19.3, Smer 17.5 and Republika 11.1.
But most pollsters see nationalist votes gathering around Republika.
Hnutie Republika was founded in March 2021 when Uhrík and other MEPs and activists left Marian Kotleba’s ĽSNS and relaunched a small registered party.
The party calls itself conservative and patriotic. In the 2024 European election it took 12.5 per cent and two of Slovakia’s 15 seats. It sits in the Europe of Sovereign Nations group with Germany’s AfD; Uhrík is an ESN vice-chair. It has no seats in the Slovak parliament.
Main goals are to raise living standards and pensions; smash corruption and make the courts work; slimmer public administration; more referendums; food and strategic self-sufficiency; environment without the Green Deal frame; lower taxes for Slovak firm.
They also promote conservative schooling; healthcare that is available; traditional family and “protection of life”; Slovak culture; a bloc of national-Christian forces; and a foreign policy that puts sovereignty, NATO/EU scepticism and national interest first.
It wants to leave NATO and resist further EU integration, it is against lethal aid for Ukraine and wants to lift sanctions against Russia. The party wants to deport illegal migrants and criminals.
Uhrík has discussed local pacts with SNS’s Andrej Danko so that “patriotic votes” do not split, and has said Smer is not his dream partner.
Slovakia, NMS poll:
PS-RE: 22% (+3)
Smer-NI: 16% (-1)
Republika-ESN: 16% (+3)
S-EPP: 9%
SaS-ECR: 7%
Hlas-NI: 6%
KDH-EPP: 6%
D-EPP: 5%
MA-EPP: 3% (-1)
SR~PfE: 3% (-1)
Pravda-*: 2% (-2)
SNS~PfE: 2% (-1)
ZĽ~EPP: 2%
ĽSNS-NI: 1%
KÚ-ECR: 1% (+1)
SV-*: 1%+/- vs. 05-10 August 2026… pic.twitter.com/NxirYfwejK
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 10, 2026
