A large qualitative study published this week by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the European Cultural Foundation (ECF) finds that most respondents in six European countries speak of the present as a period of deterioration rather than renewal.
They paint a picture that sits uneasily alongside the more upbeat findings of the European Commission’s official Eurobarometer surveys and appear to be a repudiation of the policies from Brussels, as the idea of European integration remains populair.
The report, Future nostalgia: Europe’s unfinished song, is based on 5,834 AI-moderated interviews conducted in May and June 2026 in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland, together with desk research covering political and media debate in 15 countries.
It was released on 9 September, a week before Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address.
Sixty-eight per cent of those interviewed described Europe in terms of “general deterioration or a loss of normality”.
Only 12 per cent spoke of an “awakening” or renewal.
Seventy-four per cent said Europe was not coping well with its main challenges; most often war and security, economic pressure, and the demand for greater autonomy.
Fifty-six per cent said the continent’s future was “in danger”.
The study does not find a simple rejection of European integration.
Seventy-three per cent expressed a positive vision of a stronger, more united or more prosperous Europe.
Only 13 per cent wanted “less Europe” or the Union’s dissolution.
The authors describe an “imagination gap”: Many citizens can picture the Europe they want, but few can see a credible path from present disruption to that destination.
Researchers grouped respondents into four sentiment types.
The largest, labelled “Negatives” (39 per cent), see Europe’s best days as behind it. That share rises to nearly half in France, Germany and Italy.
“Uncertains” (about 31 per cent) share pro-European goals but doubt leaders can deliver them.
“Positives” (19 per cent) treat recent crises as a possible catalyst for a stronger Union.
“Disconnected” respondents (12 per cent) treat EU affairs as distant.
Asked who offered a positive example of European action, 44 per cent of respondents named no one.
Among those who did, Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez (whose country was not even in the six-nation sample) stood out, cited by 8 per cent, often on the left and especially in Italy (one in four) and France (one in ten), for a more conspicuous stance towards Washington and the war in Gaza.
Emmanuel Macron, long the loudest advocate of European “strategic autonomy”, came a distant second at 4 per cent, a share that underlines how far his appeal has faded as he approaches the end of his presidency.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, like most other serving EU figures, was barely mentioned at all.
Respondents across the political spectrum treated the July 2025 Turnberry tariff deal with Donald Trump, seen by many as an asymmetric bargain, as a symbol of Brussels folding rather than standing its ground.
The conversations reveal a thin emotional attachment. Many of the “uncertain” still speak a language of European belonging and can recall isolated moments of pride such as vaccines, Ukraine, enlargement, even Eurovision, but struggle to name living leaders who make that pride feel current, while others say they have no such moment at all and hope only that one day they might.
Report author Paweł Zerka, a senior policy fellow at ECFR, said the difficulty was not that people had stopped wanting a stronger Europe, but that many no longer believed it was achievable.
He argued that pro-European leaders needed “proof of trajectory” rather than further grand promises, and that the “uncertain” group would decide whether nostalgia for a better past or a believable future prevailed.
The findings contrast with Standard Eurobarometer 105 (spring 2026).
That official survey reported 51 per cent trust in the EU (up three points from autumn 2025), 60 per cent optimism about the Union’s future, 72 per cent saying their country had benefited from membership, and 73 per cent viewing the EU as a place of stability in a troubled world. Support for a common defence and security policy stood at 81 per cent.
The two exercises differ in method and question design. Eurobarometer uses structured, closed questions across all 27 member states, which tend to steer answers towards pre-set options and official framings. The ECFR-ECF project used open, conversational interviews in six countries and analysed how people talk about Europe in their own words.
Future nostalgia is the fifth annual European Sentiment Compass produced jointly by the European Council on Foreign Relations and the European Cultural Foundation, a series that began in 2022.
The European Union’s Eurobarometer surveys are biased towards the bloc’s own agenda, a report has claimed. https://t.co/HOCMeg6vnG
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) September 4, 2023
