Airbus has said the world’s dedicated freighter fleet would grow by 46 per cent over the next two decades, rising from 2,360 aircraft this year to 3,460 by 2045.
The European manufacturer set out the projection on October 21 in its 2026 cargo market forecast, presented at the Cargo Facts Symposium.
It put total demand at 2,670 freighters, of which 1,580 would replace ageing models and 1,090 would serve airline expansion plans. Around 970 would be new-build aircraft and 1,700 conversions of passenger jets.
North America and Asia-Pacific would take two-thirds of that demand, needing 925 and 850 aircraft. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) would require 515, ahead of Latin America with 165, the Middle East with 125 and Africa with 90.
The forecast assumes long-term trade growth at a compound annual rate of 2.9 per cent, which Airbus said would lift global air cargo traffic by 3.2 per cent a year until 2045.
Asia-Pacific would remain the leading region for international freight, with routes to North America the busiest and growing at 3.8 per cent a year, followed by Europe.
François Cabaret, head of global market forecasts at Airbus, said trade projections had improved on last year, when tariff worries weighed on the outlook, and that the effect of those tariffs had proved milder than expected.
Air cargo carries less than 1 per cent of world trade by weight though around 30 per cent by value. Computers and high-technology goods make up 15 per cent of the value flown, double their share of three years ago, according to the company.
Airbus pointed to e-commerce and to disruption on shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, which have pushed cargo owners towards the air.
Both pillars sit awkwardly with European Union policy. Since July 1 the bloc has levied €3 on each category of goods in parcels worth less than €150 arriving from outside its borders, a charge aimed at the Chinese platforms whose exports Brussels has spent months trying to curb.
Air cargo consultants quoted by Reuters expected shipments of e-commerce goods into the EU to fall by between 10 and 35 per cent in the weeks after the charge took effect.
The company said it had taken 34 orders this year for the A350F, its new large freighter, and that the European Union Aviation Safety Agency was working through certification.
Crawford Hamilton, head of freighter marketing at Airbus, said the first A350F would be delivered in the second half of 2027.
