A new Ipsos poll for the Bundestag has delivered a sharp blow to Germany’s mainstream parties, with the CDU/CSU falling to just 22 per cent while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to an all-time high of 28 per cent.
The survey, conducted in the first week of July, shows the AfD continuing its steady rise and now leading the national vote for the first time in many polls.
The SPD remains stuck at 13 per cent while the Greens hovered at 14 per cent and FDP and Wagenknecht’s BSW languish below the 5 per cent threshold needed to enter parliament.
Die Linke was the only other party going up, polling at 13 per cent, up one percentage point.
It is the lowest result for the Christian Democrats since January 2022.
In June’s Ipsos poll, the AfD polled at 27 per cent and the Union at 23 per cent.
These results reflect deep voter dissatisfaction with the current centre-left coalition of Christian Democrats and Socialists.
Issues such as migration, the economy, energy costs, and deindustrialisation continue to dominate public concern, areas where the AfD has positioned itself as the clearest alternative.
Political observers note that the CDU’s decline comes despite its attempts to distance itself from the previous government.
Internal divisions and a perceived lack of bold leadership appear to be costing the party support, with many conservative voters shifting to the AfD.
The growing gap between the two largest parties is making traditional “firewall” strategies increasingly difficult to sustain.
If the results are similar during the elections, it would lead to an all against one coalition in the Bundestag, with Greens and Socialists dominating the decision making progress and the AfD being the only opposition party on the national level.
Christian Democrats would risk to lose votes to both it’s Left and it’s Right while it maneuvered itself into practical irrelevance, something already appears to be the case in certain circumstances, critics say.
At the federal elections of 2025, the CDU scored 28,5 per cent, the second worst result since 1949, and the AfD got 20.8 per cent, it’s best result ever.
Members of Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) in a small town near Frankfurt have caused a nationwide scandal by joining forces with their colleagues from the right-wing Alternative for Germany party (AfD) in a local council vote.https://t.co/YYBJmbtTeH
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) April 30, 2026
