Nearly half of Muslims living in France have said they would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National (RN) wins the 2027 presidential election, according to an Ifop survey for the magazine Marianne.
The online poll, conducted between September 25-30, 2026, among a representative sample of 9,689 adults, found that 46 per cent of Muslim respondents would contemplate emigration under a Le Pen presidency.
This compares with 21 per cent of the general population. Among Jewish respondents, 44 per cent expressed a similar inclination.
The survey also measured expectations of social consequences.
Some 81 per cent of Muslim respondents believed a Le Pen victory would lead to an increase in aggression and discrimination against their community, while 27 per cent said they would consider concealing their religious identity.
The study examined attitudes towards secularism, discrimination and identity, as well as potential reactions among different groups, including younger people and supporters of La France Insoumise.
On secularism, 53 per cent of all respondents said they opposed women wearing the Islamic headscarf in the street. Some 75 per cent backed the ban on the abaya in State secondary schools and 72 per cent supported prohibiting conspicuous religious symbols at sporting events.
François Kraus, director of the Politics and Current Affairs unit at Ifop, said that the arrival in power of the candidate currently leading most polls “risks generating significant blockages and produces high levels of fear and a sense of insecurity”.
Online comments from supporters frequently described it as an incentive to vote for Le Pen or as a low-cost form of demographic change (“the cheapest deportation process”).
Le Pen has consistently led first-round voting intention surveys for the election on April 18, 2027, typically polling between 30 and 35 per cent. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise and former prime minister Édouard Philippe have alternated in second place, on between 14 and 19 per cent.
She declared her candidacy on July 7, 2026, the day the Paris court of appeal shortened the ineligibility imposed on her in the European Parliament assistants case. Convicted of embezzlement of public funds, she was barred from office for 45 months, 30 of them suspended, and the 15 months to be served had already elapsed under the provisional enforcement ordered at first instance on March 31, 2025.
She was also given three years in prison, two of them suspended, and fined €100,000. She has appealed to the Cour de cassation, France’s highest court, which suspends enforcement, and a ruling is expected before the first round.
The Marianne poll appears in the magazine’s October 15 edition. The findings form part of a broader examination of public attitudes on identity and secularism ahead of the presidential contest.
“French citizens first.”
🇫🇷 Marine Le Pen has launched her 2027 campaign with a major focus on housing, energy costs and her doctrine of “national priority”.
Read more.#France2027 #LePen #FrenchPolitics #RN #EuropeanPolitics https://t.co/Z3Ab16GU6F
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) September 14, 2026
