Italy has failed to leave the European Union’s excessive deficit procedure this year after its 2025 budget shortfall was confirmed just above the bloc’s 3 per cent limit.
National statistics office Istat said on September 22 that the deficit stood at 3.1 per cent of GDP last year, down from 3.4 per cent in 2024. The figure matched the preliminary estimate it published in April.
Italian economy minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in a statement reported by news agency LaPresse that he had taken note of the data with regret. He conceded Italy would not exit the procedure ahead of schedule as Rome had hoped, adding that it could do so in 2027.
The margin was minimal. According to Italian outlet Decode39, Istat’s revision raised estimated revenue by €1.991 billion and spending by €2.346 billion, adding €355 million to the shortfall.
The April estimate had put the deficit at 3.07 per cent. To be rounded below the threshold, it would have needed to fall to 2.94 per cent.
Under EU rules, both the previous year’s deficit and the projection for the current year must be no higher than 3 per cent for a procedure to be closed. In June, the European Commission judged that Italy had taken effective action in response to its recommendations, the Sicilian daily La Sicilia reported.
Eurostat is due to publish its second annual notification of member states’ deficit and debt data on October 21.
Remaining under supervision means Italy must keep cutting its structural deficit by 0.5 percentage points a year while respecting limits on net spending growth, Decode39 reported. That leaves less room in the 2027 budget, the last before a general election expected next year.
It also complicates any move to activate the EU’s national escape clause for defence and energy spending. The clause could allow up to 1.5 per cent of GDP, some €30 billion, to be left out of deficit calculations over two years.
In April, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggested suspending EU spending rules across the bloc over the economic fallout of the Iran war. Giorgetti has since voiced doubts about the national clause, fearing Italy could stay locked in the procedure for years.
Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said it was surreal that Europe’s second-largest industrial power should depend on decimal-point calculations to know whether it could invest in its future. Opposition parties called the figure a setback for the Italian Government, pointing to rising taxes and debt.
Italy was placed under the procedure in 2024 alongside France, Belgium, Hungary, Malta, Poland and Slovakia. Its public debt rose to 137.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, the second-highest ratio in the European Union after Greece.
