The European Union has taken a record 12.18 million tonnes of Russian Arctic liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the first nine months of 2026, 9.5 per cent more than in the same period of 2025, according to an analysis of cargo-tracking data published on October 9, 2026 by Urgewald, a German environmental group.
The figures cover the Yamal LNG plant on Russia’s Arctic coast, the last large Russian LNG project still shipping freely to European ports.
Some 167 Yamal cargoes docked at EU terminals over the period, roughly one every 1.6 days. Europe absorbed 85 per cent of the project’s recorded deliveries by volume, while Yamal’s worldwide sales edged down 1.3 per cent.
“That is over 44,000 tonnes every day on average,” Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at Urgewald, said.
He said the restriction on short-term contracts in force since April 25, 2026 had done little to disrupt the trade, and that only the full prohibition would begin to put serious pressure on Russia’s LNG business.
Urgewald put estimated EU payments at €7.88 billion for the nine months, bringing the total paid for Russian LNG since 2022 to roughly €45 billion. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, EU member states have paid Russia more than €238 billion for fossil fuels and energy supplies.
The sanctions calendar and the trade data have moved in opposite directions this year. Brussels closed one door in April and the volumes grew regardless.
Under the phase-out agreed by the Council and the European Parliament on December 3, 2025, LNG bought under short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2025 has been prohibited since April 25, 2026. Long-term contracts were left running until January 1, 2027.
Those long-term deals carry most of the volume. TotalEnergies holds 20 per cent of Yamal LNG along with an offtake contract, and SEFE of Germany and Naturgy of Spain hold comparable agreements.
Naturgy’s 2025 annual report put the Russian gas purchase commitments affected by the ban at €10.95 billion. TotalEnergies said in February it would consider selling its Yamal stake if it were barred from marketing the gas outside the EU.
Third-quarter deliveries did fall, to 2.21 million tonnes, 13.6 per cent below the same quarter of 2025. September alone ran slightly ahead of September 2025 though, at 792,440 tonnes, worth an estimated €818 million.
The buying is also concentrating. France took close to three-quarters of the EU’s September cargoes. Neither Spain nor the Belgian terminal at Zeebrugge recorded a Yamal delivery that month.
The prohibition on long-term LNG contracts is due to apply from January 1, 2027. Russian pipeline gas follows on September 30, 2027, or November 1, 2027 at the latest, depending on whether member states are on course to meet storage targets.
The European Commission has read the LNG ban broadly. In a letter dated June 1, 2026, the office of Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen told the brokerage Poten and Partners that EU operators would be barred from trading or marketing Russian LNG to third countries irrespective of the final destination.
That reading closes the obvious escape route of diverting contracted cargoes to Asian buyers. TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanné said in June he had received conflicting legal advice on the point. Naturgy has raised the possibility of force majeure, though it accepts that it would still have to mitigate.
The ban arrives with European storage unusually low. EU sites were 72.4 per cent full on October 3, the weakest reading for the time of year since 2011.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) calculated that storage would supply 7.3 billion cubic metres less than a year earlier between November and March, and that the bloc might need to burn 7 per cent less gas to cover the gap.
The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) set out its winter supply outlook for 2026-27 in October. A severe cold spell could leave the EU short by as much as 15 per cent of demand.
Washington has added pressure of its own. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed into law on September 18, 2026, allows the United States to sanction Yamal’s management, foreign vessels knowingly carrying Russian LNG and port operators that serve them. The first review under the act is due by October 18, 2026.
Arctic LNG 2, Novatek’s second Arctic plant, is already under US sanctions and has China as its only buyer.
The pattern of the past nine months points one way: buyers have taken what they can while their contracts still allow it. Europe has spent the final year of the trade importing more of it than ever, and when the cushion is withdrawn on January 1, 2027 the winter will still have two months to run.
