US Vice President JD Vance has blamed the war with Iran for the Republican Party’s defeat in the November 3 midterm elections, in which the Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress.
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote in a lengthy post on X on November 4, adding that President Donald Trump had said as much the previous night.
Trump had told The Wall Street Journal on election night that Iran was “a piece of it”, though he said he did not regret the decision and would take it again. He told the newspaper that high fuel costs had been the biggest factor behind his party’s losses.
Asked about Vance’s post on November 4, the President said it was “largely true” and that the war had been worth it. He said the United States had had no choice but to act to stop Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Later that day, while showing reporters the construction of the new White House ballroom, he described the conflict as the main reason for the result.
The United States and Israel began striking Iran on February 28, killing supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Trump said at the time that the operation would last four to five weeks.
More than eight months later the conflict has not ended. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up fuel prices in the United States and in Europe, where the EU’s fossil fuel import bill has risen by billions of euros.
A Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey published in September found that about 86 per cent of Americans considered the war bad for the cost of living.
Vance said Republican turnout had held up. In Florida, he wrote, the electorate was nine points more Republican than Democrat, only slightly worse than in 2024.
The problem, he said, was that many people who had voted for the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024 had switched to the Democrats this time.
He cited a pollster who had warned him the day before the vote that Republicans would lose the generic ballot by 13 points. Asked what would bring them back, former Trump voters gave four answers: Ending the war, tackling the cost of living, putting America first and changing the US relationship with Israel.
He warned that establishment politicians would push an amnesty for illegal immigrants as the answer to the party’s troubles and said anyone doing so was lying. He said he was open to changing enforcement by targeting businesses that hired illegal labour.
Those who believed the war had been worth losing the Senate for six years should argue that openly, Vance said. That would at least be honest, he added.
Trump had earlier blamed the rout on his own absence from the ballot. The Democrats flipped Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas and had secured at least 54 of the 100 seats by November 4.
The Kansas seat was the party’s first there since 1932 and the Texas seat its first since 1988. In Maine, Troy Jackson unseated Susan Collins after almost 30 years in the Senate.
Donald Trump Jr backed Vance’s analysis on X, writing that every word of it was correct. Other Republicans were less convinced. Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring North Carolina Republican, told CNN the explanation was “oversimplified”. Senator John Cornyn of Texas wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the party had forgotten how to win elections.
Vance has been more cautious on the war than Trump from the outset. Trump said in March that the Vice President had been “maybe less enthusiastic” than him about launching the strikes. Vance led talks with Iran in April that ended without agreement.
Axios reported on November 5 that Vance had headed a faction inside the White House urging Trump to reach a deal with Tehran, warning that the war was unpopular and could cost Republicans the election. Trump had leaned towards resuming the campaign and considered new strikes before the midterms, the outlet said, before deciding to wait.
Tehran read the result as vindication. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and its chief negotiator with Washington, wrote on X that Americans had said no to war and that Iran endorsed the message.
The new Democratic majorities, which take office in January, could try to pass a War Powers Resolution directing Trump to end hostilities without congressional authorisation. Four Republican senators voted with the Democrats on such a measure before the election. Trump told The Wall Street Journal he was willing to work with the Democrats but would use his veto if required.
Vance is widely seen as a leading contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, though he has not said whether he will run.
