A new opinion poll has given Marine Le Pen a clear lead in the race for the French presidency, projecting her to win the second round against every potential opponent tested.
The Ifop survey for newspaper Le Figaro and TV station LCI, conducted on July 7-8, 2026, immediately after Le Pen announced her candidacy, shows the National Rally (RN) leader winning every hypothetical run-off scenario. The pollster questioned 984 people registered to vote, with a margin of error of between 1.4 and 3.1 points.
Against former prime minister Édouard Philippe she leads 54 per cent to 46 per cent, against Gabriel Attal the margin is 55 per cent to 45 per cent and against Jean-Luc Mélenchon she secures 70 per cent to 30 per cent.
Ifop cautioned that the second-round figures should be read with considerable care, given how little voters yet know about the line-ups actually in play.
In the first round, Le Pen takes 36 per cent of voting intentions when Philippe is the centrist candidate, ahead of Philippe on 19 per cent, Mélenchon on 15 per cent, Raphaël Glucksmann on 9 per cent and Bruno Retailleau on 8 per cent. It is the highest score Ifop has ever recorded for Mélenchon.
Le Pen holds the same 36 per cent in the scenario with Attal as the main centrist contender, but the Renaissance leader trails on 15 per cent, level with Mélenchon. Glucksmann rises to 12 per cent and Retailleau to 10 per cent.
If she were to face the left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Le Pen would get 90 per cent of right-leaning votes, up to 68 per cent of Macron’s backers and even 43 per cent of Socialists, indicating a high degree of toxicity attached to the leader of La France Insoumise (LFI).
Le Pen has gained four points in two weeks in comparable polling. Ifop attributed the jump to the clarifying effect of her declaration on RN voters. A separate Toluna Harris Interactive survey for M6 and RTL, published the same day, put her on 34 to 36 per cent, with Philippe on 20 per cent, though it gave her a narrower 51-49 second-round win over him.
Le Pen declared her fourth bid for the Élysée on July 7, on the evening news bulletin of TF1, following a Paris appeals court ruling in the European Parliament assistants’ case.
The court upheld her conviction but adjusted the sentence in a manner that left her eligible to stand, subject to a further appeal to the Court of Cassation.
She has launched a campaign website and poster as she prepares for the April 2027 contest.
RN president Jordan Bardella remains a strong alternative within the party and often polls competitively with or ahead of Le Pen. The July 7 announcement, though, has consolidated the right-wing vote behind Le Pen for now. Ifop found the two now running level, with Le Pen closing her deficit among younger voters and senior managers. She has said Bardella would serve as her prime minister were she to win.
Potential candidates from the centre, left and traditional Right have yet to finalise their strategies, and the outcome of Le Pen’s final legal appeal could introduce further uncertainty.
Marine Le Pen has moved closer to a fourth bid for the French presidency after the Paris Court of Appeal on July 7 reduced the ineligibility imposed on her in the case over the misuse of European Parliament funds allocated for parliamentary assistants. https://t.co/VeolKygS4B
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) July 7, 2026
