Europe is heading into the fourth quarter short of jet fuel even as it has pulled cargoes from South Korea, Nigeria, the United States and Canada, according to consultancy Energy Aspects and shipping data.
Energy Aspects forecasts a European deficit of 510,000 barrels a day in the last three months of 2026, against a surplus of 18,000 barrels a day in the United States and 419,000 barrels a day in Asia-Pacific, Reuters reported on September 21.
The third-quarter pattern was similar. Independent stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell to 454,000 tonnes in the week to September 10, the lowest in seven years, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed.
They recovered by 19.6 per cent to 543,000 tonnes in the week to September 17, helped by higher imports from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, according to the consultancy.
The gap follows more than six months of disrupted Middle East flows after the war the United States and Israel launched against Iran in February.
About half of Europe’s usual jet fuel imports have been lost, according to Reuters.
Kpler data put September arrivals from South Korea at 129,000 barrels a day so far, the highest since October 2022. LSEG data showed similar volumes.
South Korean refiners processed about 2.7 million barrels a day in July, up 16 per cent on June, and jet output hit a seven-year high of almost 13.89 million barrels, government data showed.
James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities, said wide spreads between Asian and European prices make the long haul pay.
Diesel in Europe is also firmer than in Asia, which tightens the same middle-distillate pool that includes jet fuel and gas oil. European diesel benchmarks recently hit a record high, Reuters reported.
Petrol and diesel have already set record retail prices in parts of the EU in September. According to the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin, the weighted EU average reached €2.063 a litre for petrol and €2.159 for diesel on September 14, the highest since the series began in 2005.
Europe was a structural jet importer before the war. Closed Gulf routes and earlier refinery closures have made the deficit worse.
Supply risks for the coming months have grown. Saudi Aramco has told at least two European refiners they would receive no crude under long-term contracts in October after an attack on its key pipeline to the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported.
The cost of freight from the Pacific and the Atlantic is now built into the price.
Airlines were not grounded en masse in the spring, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) spoke of weeks of cover, but stocks have kept falling. On April 16, IEA executive director Fatih Birol told the Associated Press that Europe had “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left.
