United States voters go to the polls this Tuesday, November 3, in midterm elections that decide whether President Donald Trump keeps a Republican-controlled Congress for the final two years of his term.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships.
The Republican Party enters the vote with narrow majorities in both chambers. It holds 219 House seats to the Democrats’ 214, with two vacancies, according to congressional data compiled by Spanish daily El País. A majority requires 218.
In the Senate, Republicans have 53 seats to 47 for the Democrats and the independents who sit with them. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, as Vice President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie.
Polls point to a difficult night for the President’s party. Trump’s approval rating stood at 37.3 per cent on November 1, with 59.9 per cent disapproving, according to the average published by analyst Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.
On the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they intend to back for Congress, Democrats were on 51.2 per cent and Republicans on 42.6 per cent. That is according to an average of surveys compiled by The New York Times and calculated by El País.
History also weighs against the White House. Since the Second World War, the party holding the presidency has lost House seats in every midterm election except 1998 and 2002.
Forecasters reflect that picture. Silver Bulletin’s model gave Democrats a 95.1 per cent chance of winning the House as of October 29, Newsweek reported, while Decision Desk HQ put the figure at 80 per cent.
The Senate is tighter. The same models rated the Democrats’ chances of taking the upper chamber at 77.7 per cent and 60 per cent respectively.
The Democratic path runs through states where Republicans have long been dominant. In Texas, where no Democrat has won a Senate race since 1988, state representative James Talarico led Texas attorney general Ken Paxton by 2.1 points in the RealClearPolling average cited by Newsweek on October 30.
At least one late survey, reported by Fox’s local Texas stations, put Paxton narrowly ahead.
In Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown led Republican Jon Husted, appointed to the seat Vance vacated, by 2.6 points.
In Alaska, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, former congresswoman Mary Peltola held a lead of just over one point against Republican senator Dan Sullivan. The state uses ranked-choice voting and a second candidate named Daniel Sullivan also appears on the ballot.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson was 1.4 points ahead of veteran Republican Susan Collins.
Silver noted that the Democratic leads in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine were each within the normal margin of polling error, according to Newsweek.
North Carolina, an open seat after the retirement of Republican Thom Tillis, looks more comfortable for the Democrats. Former governor Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley by 52 per cent to 39 per cent in an Elon University poll, Forbes reported.
Republicans have targets of their own. Democrats are defending Georgia and Michigan, both won by Trump in 2024.
In Georgia, Democratic senator Jon Ossoff led Republican Mike Collins by eight points in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll. In Michigan’s open race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was 3.2 points ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in the RealClearPolling average.
Other contests remain on a knife-edge. YouGov surveys cited by Forbes showed one-point margins in Iowa and Kansas and a tie in Nebraska, where Republican senator Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn.
Republicans still have reasons to hope. National polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016, 2020 and 2024.
The Senate does not always follow the House either. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, Republicans gained Senate seats on the same night they lost the lower chamber.
Polling has also shown that swing voters hold the Democratic Party in low regard even while saying they intend to vote for its candidates, Newsweek reported in September.
At state level, the 36 governorships on the ballot are currently split evenly, 18 Democratic and 18 Republican, according to 270toWin data cited by El País. Nationally, Republicans hold 27 of the 50 governors’ mansions.
For Europe, the outcome reaches well beyond Washington. Congress controls federal spending, including any further funding for Ukraine, while the Senate ratifies treaties and confirms ambassadors.
That gives the new Congress a say in transatlantic relations, from NATO commitments to trade.
A Democratic House could stall the administration’s legislation and budgets and open investigations into its conduct. A Democratic Senate could also block Trump’s judicial and cabinet nominees.
Polls start to close at 6pm US Eastern time, midnight in Brussels. The last of them, in Alaska, are not due to close until 6am Brussels time on November 4.
Final results in the closest races could take days. In Alaska, where ranked-choice tabulation runs only after all ballots are in, a definitive count could take around two weeks.
