Belgium’s population is expected to grow by 1.2 million over the next 45 years and migration will be the sole factor accounting for that by 2038, officials have said.
A new report from Belgium’s Federal Planning Bureau, published on February 11, revealed that the so-called “natural balance” (births minus deaths) would become negative from 2038 onwards. From then, it said, only migration would contribute to the country’s demographic expansion.
“From 2038 onwards, the international migratory balance will solely explain the positive growth in Belgium’s population,” the report read.
By 2070, immigration was expected to reach 165,000 people annually, primarily driven by population growth in countries outside the European Union.
The report suggested that, from the late 2030s onwards, migration would be the sole contributor to population growth as the natural birth-death balance was projected to turn negative by 2038.
“According to the projections, the international migratory balance stabilises at a positive level in the long term, but the natural balance, in other words, births minus deaths, becomes negative,” the report stated.
The document also showed that Belgium’s population was apparently ageing at an accelerated pace.
Since 2010, birth rates have been declining, with the average number of children per woman dropping to 1.46 in 2024. That was expected to stabilise at around 1.6 children per woman in the mid-2030s, according to the report.
While the 0-17 and 18-66 age groups would remain stable, the population aged 67 and over was set to continue to grow.
In Flanders, the population would increase sharply as a result of internal migration (influx of inhabitants from Brussels) and international migration. The natural balance will remain negative (more deaths than births), it was reported.
France’s fertility rate has dropped to the lowest level since 1918, with only 663,000 babies born in France in 2024. https://t.co/vPwxgMMeBf
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) January 15, 2025
