Polish President Karol Nawrocki’s tough stance against Ukraine for that country’s honouring of its nationalist army (UPA) has resulted not only in a diplomatic crisis but has shifted the dial in Polish public opinion and made some Ukrainians so hostile that one threatened the life of Poland’s head of state while a Ukrainian politician and soldier has warned Poland Ukraine might launch a military attack.
On June 19 Nawrocki stripped Volodymy Zelensky of Poland’s highest state honour, the Order of the White Eagle, in protest against the Ukrainian President’s decision to name a military unit in honour of the UPA, the anti-Soviet insurgents responsible for the Volhynnia massacre in which over 100,000 Polish civilians were slaughtered during the Second World War.
The Ukrainians have reacted with rage to Nawrocki’s move against their President. Zelensky sent the order back by courier, and he was followed by, among others, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and former Ukrainian presidents, who renounced Polish state honours in acts of solidarity with the current postholder.
Zelensky also pulled out of attending a conference on the recovery of Ukraine held in Gdańsk last week, even though he had been its joint organiser together with Polish PM Donald Tusk.
Polish-Ukrainian relations have plummeted to new depths with the Ukrainian foreign ministry talking openly of crisis in relations with Poland and Zelensky calling Nawrocki a Polish nationalist who has no time for Ukraine. The Ukrainian rancour with Poland’s President and the Poles has percolated down to ordinary Ukrainian and Ukrainian soldiers.
A 36-year-old Ukrainian citizen was last week accused of and charged with threatening online to kill President Karol Nawrocki He is facing pre-trial detention after being arrested at his place of work and if convicted will serve a potential prison sentence of three years for making the threats. The suspect has no permanent address and his residence permit has expired
At the weekend Polish public opinion was made aware of an extraordinary outburst which included threats of war against Poland made by a Ukrainian soldier and politician.
Yuri Sirotyuk from the drones battalion of the 5th Brigade appeared on Ukrainian television NTA and made threats against both Poland and Hungary while defending his country’s right to honour UPA fighters as heroes.
Sirotyuk is a Ukrainian politician and commentator who between 2012 and 2014 was a member of the Ukrainian parliament from the nationalist “Svoboda” party specialising in security and defence matters. Since 2022 Sirotyuk is serving as a sergeant in the Ukrainian army.
He asked rhetorically during his appearance on NTA whether Poles are ready to die fighting Ukraine.
“After the war [with Russia] I would not advise our partners to mess with Ukraine. The boys will return from fighting with a trauma. If some Hungarian or Pole says something inappropriate it could all go wrong.”
Sirotyuk then threatened Poland directly with war.
“Do our allies really want to see our soldiers rather than our migrant workers? Are Poles ready for war with Ukrainians? Are Poles ready for Ukrainian drones flying over their cities? Are Poles ready for the deaths of their fellow citizens?”
He said that his country would not back down on its view of history and he advised Poland “not to cross a red line”.
According to surveys of online activity, 98 per cent of Ukrainians support the stance of its president over honouring the UPA and analysts maintain that Zelensky has deliberately provoked Poland knowing that ordinary Ukrainians would side with him over his interpretation of history.
Ukrainian politicians have for years maintained that UPA were freedom fighters against the USSR and that their hostility to Poland was justified because of Poland’s occupation of territories in the west of Ukraine.
Poles see matters very differently. They point to the fact that the massacre in Voihynia was an action against civilians which had not military purpose and was pure ethnic cleansing. They also point to the fact that UPA had a history of collaboration with Nazi Germany and that there were Ukrainian units in the German army which took part in atrocities committed by the Nazi Germans in occupied Poland during the Second World War.
President Nawrocki has made the defence of Polish sovereignty, interests and good name priorities for his presidency. He is a historian who is the former head of the National Remembrance Institute (IPN), the body responsible for investigating crimes against Poland committed during the Second World War and in the period of communist rule.
IPN has been locked in disputes with its Ukrainian equivalent with regard to exhumations of the Polish victims of the Volhynia massacre and has led the way in publicising Volhynia as genocide.
The disagreements between the two countries has led Polish public opinion to move against Ukrainian membership of the EU, a position taken up by Nawrocki during last year’s presidential election.
In explaining his decision to oppose Ukraine’s membership of the EU last week, Nawrocki said that “Ukraine’s path toward European structures also requires a willingness to confront the difficult chapters of its own history honestly. A united Europe was built on the rejection of totalitarianism and the cult of violence. These principles must apply to everyone. For those who do not understand this, there can be no place in the European Union, and Poland will certainly not allow it.”
A few days ago Nawrocki again raised the issue of Ukraine’s place in EU structures, this time in the context of the EU-Mercosur agreement.
“I entered the game too late, although even in this losing scenario, I did everything I could around the world to stop bad solutions for Polish farmers. I also believe that Ukraine’s accession to the European Union poses a threat to Polish agriculture. I am the president of Poland, and while I understand Ukraine’s aspirations, I will always stand guard over the fair treatment of Polish farmers and Polish agricultural produce, also in the context of the Green Deal and EU solutions,” the President explained.
The voters seem to agree with their President. A poll, conducted by IBRiSpolling agency for commercial broadcaster Radio Zet, also showed how Poles oppose Ukraine becoming a member of the European Union.
Sixty per cent of those polled said they did not support Ukraine joining the EU with only 35 per cent favouring that country’s accession.
The survey showed a marked difference between voters of government supporters and the opposition.
Among supporters of Tusk’s ruling coalition, nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) support Ukraine’s membership in the European Union with 32 per cent of respondents in this group opposed.
But among voters supporting the opposition Conservatives (PiS), Confederation party and the far right Confederation of the Polish Crown, 73 per cent of respondents opposed Ukrainian membership of the EU, with only 24 per cent supporting that country’s accession to the Union.
Nawrocki’s popularity has now increased to its highest level since his election last year and analysts suggest that this is at least in part the result of his stance on Ukraine which has received cross-party support.
According to the latest polls carried out by the IBRiS agency for the liberal portal Onet and published on June 26, President Nawrocki has a satisfaction rating of 55 per cent, the highest since he took up the office last August and an increase of 8 per cent on last month’s survey
In contrast Donald Tusk, who leads the centre-left government as Prime Minister, is distrusted by 60 per cent of Poles, with approval at just 38 per cent. Distrust for Nawrocki in the same survey is running at 39 per cent.
Tusk has argued that Nawrocki’s action of revoking the top honour from Zelensky was regrettable, but did not dare to openly oppose it because of the attitude of most Poles with regard to Ukrainian behaviour over the UPA and Volhynia
Nawrocki is a close ally of US President Donald Trump who has secured from the US promises of creating a permanent military base in Poland, a country in which 10,000 rotational US troops are already stationed.
The Polish President is in conflict with the Tusk government over legislation – he has vetoed over 30 pieces of government legislation – judicial reform and diplomatic appointments.
Nawrocki’s popularity as head of state is a thorn in Tusk’s side and a major boon for Poland’s parties of the Right ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
