Sweden’s Social Democrats have suffered a statistically significant fall in a Novus poll for TV4 and Göteborgs-Posten, falling 4.3 points to 25.8 per cent with 11 days left before the September 13 general election.
The survey of 2,984 eligible voters, conducted between August 24 and 30, also cut the centre-left’s virtual lead over the governing Tidö bloc to 2.6 points, inside the margin of error.
Combined support for the Social Democrats, Left, Greens and Centre stood at 50.3 per cent; the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals totalled 47.7 per cent.
Novus’s previous reading, on August 19, had put the opposition 6.9 points ahead. Observers note that either side could now win.
Novus recorded two significant moves against its August survey.
First, the Social Democrat drop from 30.1 per cent and second, a Liberal rise from 1.9 to 3.3 per cent, still below the 4 per cent Riksdag threshold, raising their hopes to win seats.
Other scores give the Sweden Democrats 20.7 per cent (+1.6), Moderates 17.2 per cent (-1.1), Left 8.4 per cent, Centre 8.3 per cent, Greens 7.8 per cent, Christian Democrats 6.5 per cent.
Social Democrat losses ran across the field, to Centre, Sweden Democrats, Moderates, Liberals, Greens, Left and Christian Democrats.
Social Democrat party secretary Tobias Baudin called the result “a wake-up call”.
“It shows that the Social Democrats are far below the level we want to be at and that the election could be very, very close,” he told SVT, adding that many voters had assumed the contest was already settled.
He also framed it as a warning against “twelve Sweden Democrat ministers taking control of government power”.
Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson said the rebound “bodes well for the day that matters, namely election day”.
Campaign issues include welfare, the cost of living, crime, immigration, energy and security.
Even if the red-green side wins, government formation could be messy.
The Left is demanding ministerial posts in return for supporting a Social Democrat government, while the Centre refuses to have it in cabinet, raising the prospect of a minority Andersson administration.
Political scientist Jonas Hinnfors told Göteborgs-Posten the result should lift the government side. “This must give a lot of energy. Especially to the Liberals, but also to the whole Tidö group,” he said.
Sweden, Novus poll:
S-S&D: 26% (-4)
SD-ECR: 21% (+2)
M-EPP: 17% (-1)
V-LEFT: 8% (+1)
MP-G/EFA: 8%
KD-EPP: 7% (+1)
L-RE: 3% (+1)
C-RE: NaN% (NaN)+/- vs. 03-16 August 2026
Fieldwork: 24-30 August 2026
Sample size: 2,984➤ https://t.co/5XI9Get6LP pic.twitter.com/HRkjSbsDTx
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 2, 2026
