The Netherlands’ governing minority coalition has suffered a sharp contraction in voter support, according to the latest Peilingwijzer poll of polls, published on October 24, which consolidates data across major Dutch survey institutes.
The aggregate is compiled by Leiden University political scientist Tom Louwerse for Dutch public broadcaster NOS.
The weighted figures show the tripartite minority administration shrinking to representing less than a third of the electorate. The three parties would hold about 44 of the 150 seats, down from the 66 they won at the snap general election on October 29, 2025.
The left-liberal Democrats 66 (D66) of Prime Minister Rob Jetten would no longer come in first but fifth, losing almost half of its seats, from 26 to about 15.
The centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) has endured a sustained bleed to its conservative flank alongside growing voter dissatisfaction with party leadership.
Rather than a straightforward resurgence by Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), the data points to a split on the right, with the conservative party JA21 emerging as a prime beneficiary. Meanwhile the consolidated left under Progressief Nederland (PRO) commands the national field.
The Peilingwijzer aggregation reveals a severe squeeze on the ruling partners: D66, the VVD and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA).
PRO sits clearly out in front with an estimated 17 to 19 per cent of the vote, equating to about 27 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives.
Behind the progressive front-runner, the right wing has split into near parity: The PVV stands at 11 to 14 per cent (around 19 seats), closely tracked by a surging JA21 at 10 to 12 per cent (around 16 seats).
The governing parties languish well behind, with the VVD dropping to between 9 and 12 per cent (about 16 seats), D66 registering 9 to 11 per cent (about 15 seats) and the CDA polling at 8 to 10 per cent (about 13 seats).
Thierry Baudet’s Forum for Democracy (FvD) retains an anti-establishment share of roughly 7 to 8 per cent, or about 12 seats, up from the seven it won in 2025.
A central engine driving this realignment is the acute slump of the VVD, where voter frustration has been compounded by the deeply eroded popularity of party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz.
Conservative respondents in recent tracking research have voiced increasing dismay over the party’s participation in the compromise-heavy coalition, faulting party leadership for perceived concessions to progressive partners on asylum enforcement, budget priorities and energy policy.
In an Ipsos I&O survey published on October 16, defectors described the VVD as weak and wavering, while 41 per cent of respondents held it responsible for the coalition’s failure to secure majorities for its budget plans. Yeşilgöz’s personal rating fell to 3.7 out of 10, down from 4.3 in September and the lowest of any main party leader.
As confidence in the VVD leadership has fallen, classical liberal and conservative voters have abandoned the party in droves, punishing what they view as an establishment that traded ideological conviction for ministerial portfolios.
Rather than returning en masse to Geert Wilders, these disaffected VVD voters have largely migrated to JA21, which won nine seats in 2025.
The party offers an orthodox combination of strict immigration restrictions and traditional free-market economics. It presents a respectable alternative for middle-class professionals who want firm migration control without the anti-constitutional rhetoric or governance friction that accompanied Wilders’ coalition attempts.
Wilders pulled the PVV out of the previous coalition, led by Dick Schoof, in June 2025 over asylum policy, triggering the snap election.
Wilders retains his working-class and anti-establishment core, but the presence of JA21 and FvD has effectively dismantled the PVV’s former monopoly over right-wing protest voters.
On the progressive flank, the left has reorganised to maximise its electoral weight under PRO, the unified party created by the formal merger of GroenLinks and the social-democratic Labour Party (PvdA) on June 13, 2026.
Benefiting directly from centre-left voters fleeing D66’s governing compromises, PRO has established a commanding lead over every other competitor.
In the Ipsos I&O survey, D66 defectors said the party had been more right-wing than expected and that the VVD had too much influence over government policy.
The party has maintained its stride under Jesse Klaver following the departure of former European Commission executive vice-president Frans Timmermans, who stepped down from frontline national politics after the 2025 election.
On October 19, Timmermans was named chairman of the supervisory board of the Dutch Animal Protection Society (Dierenbescherming), a post he is due to take up on January 1, 2027.
The resulting splintered electoral landscape presents a severe governance dilemma for The Hague.
Sworn in on February 23, 2026, the Jetten cabinet holds 66 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives and must already rely on opposition votes to pass legislation.
Seven members of the Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) parliamentary faction have risen up against leader Geert Wilders. https://t.co/qhsn3pPGT0
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) January 20, 2026
