In the space of a single week, capitals from the Baltic to the Alps have taken steps that were barely discussed in public before 2022.
Taken one by one, each measure has an official explanation. Taken together, they point to something larger: The steady preparation of European societies, psychologically and financially, for a conflict with Russia.
In Germany, the Bundeswehr has estimated that the country could receive as many as 1,000 wounded service members a day in the event of a Russian attack on NATO, on September 16. The country’s five military hospitals would quickly reach capacity and the law requires civilian hospitals to help during wartime.
Benedikt Friemert, commander of the military hospital in Ulm, southern Germany, was blunt: “Is our healthcare system prepared for this? The only answer is: No.” The army is considering reopening an underground hospital in Ulm, built in 1979, which can shelter 2,000 people for 90 days.
Lithuania, meanwhile, has an updated plan to evacuate Vilnius in the event of a military threat. One of three main routes out of the capital would lead to the Polish border.
Poland’s Podlaskie province, in the northeast of the country, is preparing to act as a transit corridor for Baltic residents. Ten northern European countries, including Germany and Poland, have already agreed to develop joint cross-border evacuation plans.
On September 18, Swedish and German forces came ashore at Visby, on the Baltic island of Gotland, in a rapid deployment of about 1,500 troops. The exercise, Silver Wotan, runs from September 14-23 and rehearses plans to reinforce the island.
Swedish officials said it had been planned in advance and was not a response to any specific imminent threat. A Swedish commander nonetheless said it was “no ordinary exercise”, as troops escorted the transport with live weapons.
In Finland, President Alexander Stubb has urged citizens to prepare mentally for sabotage and drone incursions. Four drones have crashed on Finnish territory since January, he said, though he stressed there was no reason to panic.
Latvia has seen NATO jets shoot down drones over its territory on June 8 and August 14. The Latvian military blamed the incidents on Russian electronic warfare and has sent extra air defence units to its eastern border.
Luxembourg Airport suspended all flights on the evening of September 18 after unauthorised drones were detected near and then over the airfield at Findel. Some 19 inbound flights and more than 1,800 passengers were affected and the operators have not been identified.
Even neutral Switzerland has moved. The same day, the Federal Council approved its 2026 Security Policy Strategy, with 10 objectives and 46 measures aimed at hybrid threats and at countering an armed attack.
In Paris, President Emmanuel Macron ordered the government to draw up a plan to protect critical infrastructure and the most sensitive defence-industry sites from Russian drone and cyber attacks. “The Russian hybrid threat against Europeans and against France has intensified,” he said after meeting party leaders at the Élysée.
In Britain, the Cabinet Office is preparing a national campaign encouraging households to keep a few days of food and water at home. Viral posts on September 18 presented this as preparation for war, though the official advice dates back to 2023 and covers floods, power cuts and cyber attacks.
Each announcement, framed as prudence, makes the idea of a European war with Russia sound a little more ordinary. What is harder to find is a convincing explanation of why Moscow would start one.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has warned that Russia could be able to attack NATO territory by 2029. The evidence from the Ukrainian front sits awkwardly with that forecast.
More than four and a half years after its full-scale invasion, Russia has not subdued Ukraine. Between June 2025 and June 2026 it made a net gain of about 3,700 square kilometres, some 0.6 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, using data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In the 30 days to July 21, The Economist put Russian gains at 30 square kilometres. Earlier this year, Ukraine recorded its first net territorial gains since 2023.
The price has been enormous. A former senior Western official estimated in late February that Russia had suffered about 1 million military casualties, killed and wounded.
Critics of the war footing ask the obvious question. If Moscow has been unable to defeat one neighbour in four years, why should it be expected to take on an alliance of 32 countries, including two European nuclear powers and, for now, the United States?
Some of those closest to the threat have said as much. Stubb said in August he did not believe NATO and Russia would enter open conventional conflict, citing intelligence data and NATO’s nuclear deterrent.
That same month, US President Donald Trump ruled out a Russian attack on NATO after talks with Vladimir Putin. Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs told Latvians there was no cause for concern and that the risk of a direct military invasion remained low.
Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said his country’s threat assessment had not changed. What the region’s leaders describe instead is the hybrid campaign Russia is already waging below the threshold of open war.
Much of Europe’s preparation is being paid for with borrowed money. The EU has set up the €150 billion SAFE loan programme for defence, while Berlin exempted military spending from its constitutional debt brake and has since moved to cut welfare to fund rearmament.
For critics, the question is one of competence. The same political class that presided over sluggish growth, high energy prices and contested immigration policies is now asking citizens to accept triage plans and evacuation maps as part of ordinary life.
They also argue that voters have been told to spend more on defence, stock their cupboards and brace for sabotage. Far less has been said about what diplomacy is under way to ensure none of it is ever needed.
Governments on NATO’s eastern flank see it differently. Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas said on September 2 that the alliance faced a problem it could not negotiate away because “Russia is not going to change”.
Officials in the Baltic states and Poland argue that visible preparation is itself a deterrent and that Moscow is less likely to test a society that is ready.
Russia says it has no plans to attack NATO. Whether or not Europe’s leaders believe that, they are making sure their citizens no longer find the alternative unthinkable.
